Stock Talk

Higher interest rates can put pressure on investment values—but they may also increase the yields available on newly purchased income-producing investments. What does that tradeoff mean for your retirement plan? In this Oak Harvest Roundtable recap, Chris Perras, Troy Sharpe, and Charles discuss how interest rates connect to retirement income, inflation, stock market valuations, and real estate. The conversation looks beyond the headlines to explore why higher rates don’t affect every investment—or every retiree—the same way. In this episode: • Who influences short-term and long-term interest rates • Why higher rates can create both challenges and potential income opportunities • How inflation affects retirement spending and purchasing power • Why earnings growth matters alongside interest rates • How P/E ratios help explain stock market valuations • How mortgage rates can affect real estate buyers and owners • Differences between publicly traded REITs and private real estate investments • Historical…

Higher interest rates can push down the prices of investments you already own. They can also change the income available from newly purchased bonds and other interest bearing investments. So what does that mean for your retirement plan? In this episode of Stock Talk, Chris Perras explains how higher rates may affect bonds, stock valuations, real estate, annuities, and retirement income planning. He also looks at a key question for retirees: if stocks decline while you’re taking withdrawals, how might your cash and short term bond holdings affect the decisions you face? Chris covers three questions to discuss when reviewing a retirement plan: Has the income available from bonds and cash changed your investment tradeoffs? Does your current stock and bond allocation still fit your goals and risk tolerance? How would your withdrawal plan work during a substantial stock market decline? Watch the Oak Harvest interest rate roundtable with Troy, Charles, and Chris:…

The AI boom keeps getting compared to the dot-com bubble. But what if the comparison is right—and the timing is wrong? A Bespoke Investment Group chart compares the Nasdaq after the launch of Netscape in 1994 with the Nasdaq after the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. At a comparable point in the two cycles, today lines up closer to September 1998 than the March 2000 dot-com peak. That doesn’t mean history will repeat. Historical comparisons aren’t forecasts. But it raises an important question: What evidence would tell us this AI cycle is nearing the end—and what evidence would suggest it may still be developing? In this episode of Stock Talk, we examine four major pieces of the argument: The historical Netscape-versus-ChatGPT market comparison, the spread of AI adoption and productivity, corporate earnings momentum, and today’s valuation and interest-rate risks. We also look at the massive increase in data-center construction, the difference between FOMO and what Ed Yardeni calls “Fabulous Earnings Momentum,” and…

What if artificial intelligence changes the world—but some of today’s leading AI stocks still turn out to be the wrong investments at the wrong prices? In this episode of Stock Talk, Chris Perras looks back at the Dotcom era to explore an important distinction for investors: a technology can transform the economy without every stock connected to that technology delivering great investment returns. The Internet didn’t fail after the Dotcom crash. It went on to reshape commerce, communication, advertising and entertainment. But many technology investors still suffered enormous losses as valuations changed, interest rates rose and market leadership shifted. Could something similar happen during the AI boom? Rather than trying to predict an AI crash, Chris focuses on three signals that may help investors recognize whether market leadership is beginning to change: • STOCKS — Is technology continuing to dominate, or is leadership spreading into financials, industrials, energy, materials and international markets?…

Artificial intelligence may be the biggest technology story in the market — but the next major investment opportunity connected to AI may not be another AI stock. As companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta spend hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure and data centers, they're also creating enormous demand for something much more physical: electricity, copper, steel, transformers, natural gas, uranium, electrical equipment and the infrastructure needed to connect it all. So what happens if the AI boom eventually creates a materials boom? In this episode of Stock Talk, we look back at what happened after technology stopped dominating the market around the dot-com era and examine whether investors could be seeing the early stages of another major shift in market leadership. After the Nasdaq peaked in 2000, some of the strongest investments of the following years weren't technology companies. Copper, gold, mining companies, materials and commodity-producing countries experienced…

The S&P 500 has climbed sharply since the market lows of April 2025—but something unusual has happened at the same time: interest rates have also moved higher. So why haven't higher rates stopped the stock market? In this episode of Stock Talk, we break down the tug-of-war between corporate earnings and interest rates and explain why earnings growth has been powerful enough, so far, to overcome the pressure of higher Treasury yields. We also look at what could happen next. Using S&P 500 earnings estimates and different P/E assumptions, we'll walk through several illustrative scenarios for 2027—including what could potentially support an S&P 500 around 8,500, what could bring it closer to 7,200, and how a combination of falling earnings estimates and higher interest rates could create a much more difficult 6,500 scenario. In this video you'll learn: ✔ Why stocks and interest rates have both been rising ✔ Why earnings have been such an important driver of the market ✔ How higher Treasury yields can pressure…

Is the AI boom beginning to rhyme with the late 1990s? Strong earnings, record market highs, massive semiconductor investment, and an unusual shift in global currency conditions are creating a market setup investors should be watching closely. In this video, we examine the growing comparison between today’s AI-driven market and the final stages of the dot-com boom. The comparison became even more interesting after the United States and Japan stepped in to support the Japanese yen—an unusual development that raises an important question: could changing global financial conditions provide another source of liquidity at the same time earnings and AI investment remain strong? That doesn’t mean 2026 has to repeat 1999. Today’s largest AI companies are generating substantial revenue, profits, margins, and cash flow. But history shows that strong businesses, strong earnings, improving liquidity, and increasing investor enthusiasm can sometimes combine to produce powerful—and increasingly speculative—late-cycle…

An investor can be completely right about the future—and still lose money in the present. That happened during the dot-com boom. The internet really did change the world, but concentrated portfolios, extreme valuations, leverage, and tighter financial conditions still caused enormous investment losses. Now, a similar lesson is emerging from the AI investment cycle. In this video, we compare the dot-com bubble of 1998–2000 with today’s massive AI infrastructure buildout. We examine how a highly successful AI-focused investment strategy reportedly suffered a severe short-term decline, despite being built around a technology trend that may continue growing for years. You’ll learn: • How a smart investment idea can become a crowded and leveraged trade • Why being right about a technology doesn’t guarantee investment success • How leverage can force investors to sell at the worst possible moment • Why the AI data-center and semiconductor buildout resembles the internet infrastructure boom • How interest rates,…

Inflation, interest rates, and energy prices may look like three separate financial risks—but they are deeply connected. In this episode, Chris Perras of Oak Harvest Financial Group explains how rising energy costs can contribute to inflation, how inflation influences Federal Reserve policy, and how higher interest rates can affect stocks, bonds, cash, and the long-term purchasing power of retirees. For retirees and those approaching retirement, the biggest danger may not be short-term market volatility. It may be the gradual loss of purchasing power as groceries, prescriptions, insurance premiums, utilities, transportation, and other living expenses continue to rise. Chris also explains: ✔ Why inflation is often called the silent wealth killer ✔ How higher interest rates can help savers but pressure bond prices and stock valuations ✔ Why energy costs affect far more than gasoline prices ✔ How oil, inflation, and interest rates create a financial chain reaction ✔ Why predicting every Federal Reserve decision…

What if one of the greatest companies ever built turns out to be a disappointing investment? In this video, I explain why this isn’t really a story about SpaceX—it’s a story about investor expectations, IPO hype, and the price you pay for even the most extraordinary businesses. Drawing on more than 35 years of investment experience, I compare today’s excitement around SpaceX to past market favorites like Amazon, Tesla, and the dot-com era, and show why great companies don't always make great stocks. If you're considering investing in high-profile IPOs or simply want to become a more disciplined long-term investor, this is a lesson you won't want to miss. Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help…

Why are so many Wall Street firms raising their S&P 500 targets, yet the market isn't surging higher? In this week's Stock Talk, I break down the two forces that are keeping the S&P 500 from making a much bigger move despite outstanding corporate earnings. We'll look at why accelerating earnings alone aren't enough when AI-driven capital spending is pressuring free cash flow, and how higher Treasury yields are limiting valuation expansion even as profits grow. I'll explain the relationship between earnings, interest rates, price-to-earnings multiples, and free cash flow in simple terms so you can better understand what is really driving today's market—and what could unlock the next sustained rally toward 8,000 and beyond. If you're an investor trying to make sense of today's headlines without getting caught up in the noise, this episode will help you focus on the market fundamentals that matter most. Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's…

Is every jobs report, inflation update, or GDP release really telling investors what they need to know? In this week's Stock Talk, Chris Perras explains why successful investing is not about reacting to every economic headline or trying to predict the next government report. Using the latest employment data as an example, he shows how economic statistics are often revised months later and why headline numbers can paint an incomplete picture. Chris also breaks down the critical difference between correlation and causation, using the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the S&P 500 to illustrate why one chart rarely tells the whole story. Instead of chasing every news cycle, learn why long-term investors may benefit from focusing on the factors that have historically mattered most, including corporate earnings, cash flow, valuations, interest rates, and investor expectations. If you're looking for a calmer, more disciplined framework for understanding the markets, this episode is for you. 0:00 Economic Data…

Think you can outsmart the market? Every geopolitical crisis makes investors wonder if it's time to sell, but history tells a different story. In this week's Stock Talk, I explore why headlines surrounding Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Israel, China, and Taiwan often create short-term fear while long-term market performance has historically been driven by corporate earnings and interest rates. Using recent market examples, I explain why successful market timing requires getting two decisions right, when to sell and when to buy back, and why missing the recovery may be far more damaging than living through temporary volatility. If you're a retiree or pre-retiree wondering how world events could affect your portfolio, this discussion will help you separate emotion from evidence and focus on the long-term fundamentals that have historically mattered most. As always, this video is for educational purposes and is not individualized investment advice. 00:00 Introduction: Are You Really That Good at Market Timing? 01:56…

The biggest risk in a volatile market may not be the pullback itself, it may be the decisions investors make because of it. In this Stock Talk episode, Chris Perras and Charles Scavone of Oak Harvest Financial Group break down the major forces shaping the second half of 2026, including corporate earnings, peak earnings growth, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, a new Federal Reserve chairman, AI-related capital spending, and the excitement surrounding SpaceX. They also explain why earnings continue to be one of the most important drivers of long-term market performance, why volatility is a normal part of investing, and why trying to time the market can be especially risky for retirees and those approaching retirement. If you’re wondering whether to stay invested, adjust your allocation, or prepare for more market swings ahead, this conversation offers a practical look at what investors should be watching next. 00:12 1H Review + Volatility Setup 03:00 Earnings Resilience 06:51 Peak Earnings Growth / Rate of…

Is the 2026 bull market still intact, or is the harder part of the ride just beginning? In this Stock Talk preview, I walk through Oak Harvest’s Second Half 2026 Market Outlook livestream and explain what investors may want to watch as we move into the back half of the year, including S&P 500 earnings growth, interest rates, inflation expectations, energy prices, AI-driven capital spending, potential Federal Reserve policy changes, and the risk of renewed market volatility. I’ll also preview why our team believes the bull market may remain supported by strong corporate earnings and contained rates, while also acknowledging important headwinds such as slowing earnings growth, a new Fed chairman, and comparisons to the late 1990s technology cycle. Join Troy Sharpe, Charles Scavone, and me live on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, at 6:00 PM Central as we discuss stocks, bonds, energy, valuations, portfolio positioning considerations, and live Q&A in a fair and balanced, educational format.…

Can strong earnings still disappoint investors? In this week’s Stock Talk, I explain why “good” results are not always good enough in today’s stock market. Earnings season has been outstanding, with S&P 500 profit growth accelerating, margins remaining strong, and analysts raising expectations for the rest of 2026. But several high-quality companies still sold off after reporting strong results because stocks do not just react to earnings, they react to how those earnings compare to expectations already priced in. In this episode, I break down why companies like Broadcom, CrowdStrike, NVIDIA, Ciena, Celestica, Deere, and others saw mixed or negative stock reactions despite solid earnings. I also discuss what FactSet’s latest earnings data says about S&P 500 earnings growth, profit margins, sector leadership, technology stocks, energy stocks, materials, health care weakness, and the outlook for the market through the rest of 2026. The key takeaway: corporate fundamentals remain strong, but valuations and…

Is the AI boom becoming the next dot-com bubble? In this video, I compare today’s AI-driven stock market with the 1999–2000 dot-com era, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, semiconductor stocks, Fed policy, inflation, GDP growth, oil prices, and investor psychology. While today’s market has clear dot-com similarities, AI leaders are more profitable and better established than many internet stocks of the late 1990s. For long-term investors, retirees, and pre-retirees, the focus remains the same: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and watch earnings growth. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to…

What does stagflation really mean? Not just the textbook definition of high inflation combined with weak or slowing economic growth, but what it feels like for consumers and investors when essentials like food, energy, and insurance keep rising while wages and job opportunities fail to keep up. I’ll walk through where stagflation pressures are showing up around the world, including Europe, China, emerging markets, and the United States, and explain the major forces behind it, from energy shocks and overregulation to reshoring, debt, and currency weakness. I’ll also cover the investment implications, including which areas have historically held up better, which have struggled, and how investors may want to think about building a more resilient portfolio focused on real assets, pricing power, stable growth, and diversification. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops…

I’m breaking down the latest Q1 2026 earnings season update and why the AI capex boom may still have room to run. I cover accelerating S&P 500 earnings, record profit margins, rising EPS estimates, and how today’s cycle compares to the late-1990s Dotcom capex run. I also explain why higher oil prices and interest rates remain headwinds, but not roadblocks, when earnings growth is this strong. In this Stock Talk, I bring the focus back to what has historically mattered most for stock prices over time: earnings. While headlines, geopolitics, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy can create short-term volatility, I walk through current FactSet earnings data showing that many S&P 500 companies are reporting positive earnings and revenue surprises, profit margins remain strong, and leadership is concentrated in areas like technology, materials, financials, and industrials. I also explain why forward earnings estimates may suggest continued acceleration in revenue and EPS growth through 2026, while reminding…

In this Stock Talk, I bring the focus back to what has historically mattered most for stock prices over time: earnings. While headlines, geopolitics, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy can create short-term volatility, I walk through current FactSet earnings data showing that many S&P 500 companies are reporting positive earnings and revenue surprises, profit margins remain strong, and leadership is concentrated in areas like technology, materials, financials, and industrials. I also explain why forward earnings estimates may suggest continued acceleration in revenue and EPS growth through 2026, while reminding investors that estimates can change and should not be treated as guarantees. The key takeaway is simple: in uncertain markets, it may help to stay disciplined, diversified, and focused on the underlying fundamentals that can drive long-term stock performance. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at…

Join me as I ask whether today’s AI investment cycle is truly an “obvious bubble” like the Dot-Com era, or whether the real story is more nuanced. I compare the stall-and-surge period of 1999–2000 with today’s AI acceleration into 2026, focusing on capex spending, the rise of agentic AI, market returns, valuations, and where risk is showing up. While today’s market has echoes of 1999, I explain why the foundation looks stronger this time: AI demand is already real, many leaders are profitable, and much of the speculative risk remains concentrated in private markets rather than public equities. Still, risks are rising as we potentially exit the “7th inning stretch,” so I believe investors should stay disciplined, diversified, and focused on real earnings, real demand, and long-term planning, not just excitement around the next big technology trend. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial…

In today’s Stock Talk, I take a step back from the headlines and ask a question investors hear in every market cycle: is this time really different, or does it just feel that way? I walk through historical market data from major conflicts like World War II, Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq to show how markets have often recovered faster than emotions would suggest, even during periods of extreme uncertainty. I also explain why today’s environment feels so intense, from war and oil volatility to AI disruption and higher interest rates, while reminding viewers that corrections are a normal part of investing and long-term returns are still driven by fundamentals like earnings, innovation, and rates. My goal is to help investors stay grounded, avoid emotional decisions, and recognize that fear-driven selloffs can also create opportunity. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops…

What if the AI boom isn’t another dot-com bubble at all, but the next great re-acceleration in markets? In this video, I break down the striking similarities and crucial differences between the 1999 dot-com capex cycle and today’s AI investment surge, including exploding data center demand, the rise of agentic AI, Nvidia’s role, private vs. public market risk, interest rates, and what all of it could mean for stocks, retirement portfolios, and long-term investors. I also explain why I believe we may be in the “7th inning stretch” of this AI cycle, where upside may still remain but risks are starting to build beneath the surface. If you want a clearer view of AI stocks, market cycles, investing strategy, and how history may be rhyming in 2026, this discussion will help you stay grounded in what’s real, not just what’s exciting. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops…

What if the reason stocks aren’t falling harder in 2026 has less to do with headlines and more to do with what most investors are missing? In this video, I break down why the market has remained surprisingly resilient despite war-driven inflation, geopolitical tension, and elevated volatility, and I show you the three forces I believe are keeping stocks supported: lower consumer sensitivity to energy shocks, strengthening corporate earnings, and the potential for a more flexible Fed. After watching, you’ll walk away with a clearer understanding of what is really driving this market, how to separate short-term fear from long-term fundamentals, and what that could mean for your investment strategy, especially if you are nearing or in retirement. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to…

This week, I break down why the market feels stuck and what’s really driving it. Stocks have now declined for three straight weeks, but this isn’t a typical selloff. Instead, we’re seeing a grinding, sideways market as inflation pressures quietly build again, led by rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. I’ll explain why the bond market is signaling “higher for longer” interest rates, how energy costs are feeding real-time inflation risk, and what that means for stocks going forward. I also dive into the shift happening in AI, from hype to accountability, and why it still matters long term. Most importantly, I’ll walk through what investors should be watching right now: oil, the Fed, and upcoming earnings and how to stay positioned in a market that’s not broken, but increasingly sensitive. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's…

I walk through what’s really happening in the market right now after months of volatility, geopolitical headlines, and sideways movement in the S&P 500. In this update, I revisit the two headwinds and two tailwinds we outlined in our 2026 outlook and explain how rising inflation expectations, volatility tied to the presidential cycle, and a six-month market pause may be setting the stage for the next phase of the bull market. I also break down the latest S&P 500 earnings estimates, historical market behavior, and a fascinating comparison between today’s AI-driven cycle and the late-1990s tech boom. While no market outlook is certain, understanding how earnings growth, sentiment, and historical patterns interact may help investors stay disciplined and focused on long-term planning. Link to FactSet's earnings commentary: https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-february-13-2026 About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and…

Wall Street is debating a provocative question this week: If AI continues exceeding expectations, could that actually become bearish for the broader economy? In this video, I walk through a widely discussed scenario analysis from Citrini Research that explores how accelerated AI adoption might pressure white-collar employment, consumer spending, housing, and credit markets by 2027–2028. Importantly, this is not Oak Harvest’s base case view, and the authors themselves describe it as a scenario, not a prediction. Link to article: https://open.substack.com/pub/citrini/p/2028gic?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web While most extreme outcomes may never materialize, AI is likely to reshape industries over the next several years. That is why thoughtful planning matters. In a choppy market environment, our guidance remains consistent: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and stay focused on long-term objectives. If you would like help reviewing your retirement plan or portfolio positioning, our team at…

Why is the S&P 500 flat in 2026 while small-cap value stocks and high-dividend sectors are quietly outperforming? In this market update, you’ll gain clarity on what is really happening beneath a calm headline number and why this year has started with one of the widest return dispersions in decades. We walk step by step through the performance differences between growth and value, large caps and small caps, dividend strategies and defensive sectors, then examine what factor rotation and bond market signals may be telling us about shifting economic expectations. Most importantly, you’ll walk away understanding how short-term rotations can create emotional pressure to chase performance, why diversification remains essential for long-term investors, and how to think calmly and strategically about allocation decisions within a retirement plan. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group.…

Is the biggest surprise of 2026 already happening, and almost no one sees it yet? I break down what investors should be watching in the S&P 500, earnings growth trends, AI-driven capital spending, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. You’ll learn how mid-term election cycles typically impact market volatility, what current earnings data may be signaling about valuation compression, and why this year could unfold very differently than many strategists expect. If you’re age 50 or older and focused on retirement income, portfolio growth, and tax-efficient planning, this video will help you better understand risk, opportunity, and how volatility may create strategic advantages for long-term investors. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak…

Early 2026 market volatility has my attention, despite realized volatility staying low... while the bond and options markets quietly flash warning signs for a choppy first quarter. Today I'm revisiting why our team expected inflation to cool faster in 2025, driven by easing shelter costs, slowing wages, and productivity gains from AI, while also explaining why goods inflation may reaccelerate short term due to tariffs, reshoring, and higher input costs. I share what’s keeping me up at night over the next few months, why a potential February Tax Day pullback wouldn’t end the bull market, and why we’d view it as one of the few real buying opportunities of the year. Elevated volatility creates discomfort, but historically, it also can create opportunity. Our team at Oak Harvest Financial Group is focused on helping long-term investors stay patient, prepared, and positioned no matter what 2026 throws our way. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment…

A Key Risk for 2026 emerged quickly. What sparked the sudden market pullback, and how should investors should think about it calmly and clearly? I discuss the impact of renewed tariff tensions, shifting inflation expectations, and why the VIX moved sharply higher, along with what the options and insurance markets may be signaling beneath the surface. Most importantly, I explain why periods of elevated volatility often create opportunity for long-term investors, even when the headlines feel unsettling. This is not about predictions or panic, but about understanding market structure, managing expectations, and staying patient as we move through a fast and emotional start to the year. 📅 Join us live on January 29, 2026, as we unveil our full 2026 Market Outlook with Troy, Charles, and myself. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time if there are specific topics you’d like us to address. https://click2retire.com/Register-1h-2026-mos About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO,…

Do the Tradeable Volatility Markets think there are Road bumps coming? Turn on the financial news and you’ll hear the word “volatility” almost every day. But are markets really more volatile... or does it just feel that way? In this video, I break down what market volatility actually looks like as we head into 2026, a mid-term election year that has historically brought wider swings and heightened uncertainty. I walk through the data behind market drawdowns, explain what’s normal versus what’s truly out of the ordinary, and put recent market moves into proper long-term perspective. We start with bond volatility, using the MOVE Index as ground zero for stress in collateral markets. Despite the headlines, the data tells a very different, and much more constructive, story for Treasuries and liquidity conditions. From there, I pivot to stock market volatility, covering: Realized vs. implied volatility What current SpotVol levels are telling us Why short-dated options are pricing in more risk How the VIX and…

Patience may matter more than usual for investors in 2026. Our investment team remains constructive on equities this year, but we expect increased market volatility, especially in the first half of the year. I review historical stock market drawdowns, presidential election cycle data, Federal Reserve transitions, inflation seasonality, and earnings growth expectations to explain why 2026 may be a more uneven investing year. I also discuss why staying disciplined and avoiding emotional decisions can be important during volatile markets, even when long-term fundamentals remain supportive. We will continue covering our 2026 outlook in upcoming videos. Join Troy, Charles, and me for our live 2026 Market Outlook on YouTube on January 29, 2026. Sign up to attend that here: https://click2retire.com/Register-1h-2026-mos About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's…

In Part 3 of Oak Harvest’s 2026 Market Outlook, I explain why our investment team believes 2026 could be a year of elevated market volatility and what history may suggest for long-term investors. We look at past market behavior during midterm election years, second years of presidential terms, and periods when a new Federal Reserve Chair takes office. While history does not repeat exactly, understanding these patterns can help investors stay grounded during uncertain markets. Key topics in this video: • 2026 market volatility expectations • Midterm election year market history • New Fed Chair transitions and market reactions • Why volatility often creates opportunity for long-term investors We will continue covering our 2026 outlook in upcoming videos. Join Troy, Charles, and me for our live 2026 Market Outlook on YouTube on January 29, 2026. Sign up to attend that here: https://click2retire.com/Register-1h-2026-mos About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead…

If you are approaching retirement — or already retired — understanding potential market dynamics ahead is an important part of long-term planning. In this episode, the investment team at Oak Harvest Financial Group shares its perspective on what investors may face in 2026, including the role of corporate earnings growth, valuation considerations, interest rates, and the likelihood of increased market volatility. We discuss: Why earnings growth is a key long-term driver of stock market performance What current consensus forecasts suggest for S&P 500 earnings How productivity gains, including AI adoption, may impact corporate margins Why periods of higher volatility have historically created both risk and opportunity How historical market cycles may provide context — not predictions — for future market behavior This video is intended to provide market context and education, not forecasts or guarantees. Markets do not move in straight lines, and outcomes can differ significantly from expectations. Our goal is…

Here's your sneak peak of what our team expects for the 1st half of 2026 in the markets. I'll walk you through what investors can realistically expect when it comes to equity returns, market drawdowns, and volatility, and how those cycles tend to show up over time. You will come away with a clearer understanding of how often pullbacks actually occur, why volatility is a normal cost of long-term investing, and how historical seasonality, market cycles, and presidential terms may influence the path ahead into early and mid-2026. I also explain how our investment team thinks about tailwinds, headwinds, and elevated volatility, not to make predictions, but to help you build better perspective, discipline, and visibility around risk and opportunity so you can stay grounded through both calm markets and bucking bull markets. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the…

Markets have gone up since Covid, but the ride has been anything but smooth. In this video, I break down why market pullbacks are not rare events, how often investors should expect volatility, and why even strong bull markets can feel uncomfortable along the way. If you have ever wondered why markets seem to fall more often than headlines suggest, this will give you important perspective. You will also get a sneak peek into how our Oak Harvest investment team is thinking about the road ahead into early 2026. I share the key tailwinds and headwinds we are watching, why earnings matter more than headlines, and why next year may bring more opportunity and more volatility than many investors expect. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's…

Market volatility isn’t a Black Friday sale, and in this video, I walk through why investors may experience drawdowns even during strong long-term markets like the S&P 500. I share historical context around common pullbacks, how different market “factors” such as growth, value, and momentum rotate over time, and why style shifts can make it difficult to “change horses mid-race.” I also review post-2020 index performance, recent sector moves, and the trade-offs between higher expected returns and higher volatility. My goal is to help you understand how risk and reward tend to travel together, and why having a plan that reflects your comfort level with downside swings may be important over a full retirement timeline. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts…

Over the past decade, the “Magnificent 7” stocks grew rapidly by operating relatively asset-light businesses. But today, these same companies are allocating unprecedented amounts of capital to chips, servers, data centers, electricity, real estate, and AI infrastructure. My goal in this video is to give you clear context around these spending trends, how they compare to past investment cycles, and why investors are raising new questions about sustainability and long-term returns. What if I told you the shape of today’s economy might explain why some Americans feel prosperous while others feel like they are falling behind? In this episode of Stock Talk, I break down why economists are calling this a K shaped recovery and what that really means for consumers, workers, and long term investors. Over the years, commentators have tried simplifying economic cycles with shapes like V or W. But what we are experiencing today looks very different, and the divergence in outcomes between groups is becoming clearer every…

What if I told you the shape of today’s economy might explain why some Americans feel prosperous while others feel like they are falling behind? In this episode of Stock Talk, I break down why economists are calling this a K shaped recovery and what that really means for consumers, workers, and long term investors. Over the years, commentators have tried simplifying economic cycles with shapes like V or W. But what we are experiencing today looks very different, and the divergence in outcomes between groups is becoming clearer every month. In this week’s discussion, I share what I’m hearing from hundreds of corporate earnings calls, how spending patterns are shifting, and what these changes might signal for markets going forward. My goal is to provide a calm, educational perspective so you can better understand the environment you are planning and investing in. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak…

Today I’m blending a little classic rock with market insight to cut through the noise of bearish headlines and bubble talk. You’ll hear why I don’t agree with comparisons to the late ’90s, what the data actually says about this V-bottom rally, and why history shows strength, not weakness, when markets stay over key moving averages. By the end, you’ll walk away with a clearer, fact-based perspective on where we are in this bull market and why our team at Oak Harvest still has “a whole lotta love” for stocks heading into 2026. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard…

Paul Tudor Jones recently said we’re in the “9th inning” of the AI tech stock bubble, the late stages of a market mania similar to 1999’s Dot-com peak. I don’t see it that way. In this week’s video, I break down why the data tells a different story, and why I believe we’re still early in the game, maybe the 3rd or 4th inning, not the 9th. We’ll compare today’s AI-driven market cycle to the Dot-com era, review historical S&P 500 seasonality, and discuss how current earnings, Fed policy, and market behavior may shape the next 12 to 18 months. If you’ve been following our series, you know we’ve been tracking this AI buildout story since mid-April’s V-bottom, and I’ll show you how the current rally continues to mirror the late ‘90s pattern almost perfectly. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and…

Are we seeing the top of the AI boom or just another milestone in a long-term growth story? In this week’s Market Update, I examines whether September 2025 will be remembered as the “top” of the AI trade, or if comparisons to the late-1990s Dot-com bubble miss the mark. I'll also give you perspective on market leadership, sector rotation, and what investors might expect as we enter the seasonally strong fourth quarter and the first year of a new presidential cycle. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge…

Maybe five or ten years from now, we’ll look back and wonder if September 2025 was the top of the AI boom. Personally, I doubt it. For now, those who tuned out the “AI bubble” and “overvalued S&P 500” chatter are likely smiling after a strong third quarter. Today I'm going to review the data and context behind what may go down as one of the strongest third quarters in recent history, and discuss why, historically, the fourth quarter often adds to those gains. We’ll look at sector performance, volatility (or the lack thereof), and how market seasonality, the presidential cycle, and past patterns like the late 1990s can help frame expectations heading into year-end. I also share thoughts on how investors can interpret strong markets responsibly with a focus on data, discipline, and perspective, not hype or prediction. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's…

In this week’s market update, I walk through the lessons from the sharp April selloff, why our team viewed it as a classic “V-bottom” recovery, and how history may guide what comes next. I compare today’s AI-driven market cycle with the Dotcom buildout of the late 1990s, highlighting which sectors have led year-to-date and what that might mean for investors as we head into year-end repositioning season. From technology and semiconductors to alternative energy and materials, I share perspective on the groups showing strength, and why institutional tax calendars can create opportunities for active investors to watch. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He…

Are we in the middle of a historic V-bottom recovery that mirrors the Dotcom boom, but this time fueled by AI? In this week’s update, I break down why I believe the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, the strength of the S&P 500 since April, and the powerful role of semiconductors all point to a bull market that still has room to run. I compare today’s market action to the late 1990s tech buildout, explain what history tells us about Fed pauses and all-time highs, and share why short-term pullbacks may just be noise on the way to much higher levels ahead. If you’re wondering where stocks might go from here, or how to navigate volatility with a clear plan, I’ll walk you through the data, the history, and the strategy behind staying invested for long-term growth. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience…

Will the stock market keep soaring toward 7,300–7,400, even with higher rates, global tensions, and Fed uncertainty? I'm going to break down what Jerome Powell’s dovish comments really mean, why the S&P 500 is hitting record highs, and what decades of market history reveal about Fed pauses and rate cuts. Drawing on almost 35 years of managing money, I show how today’s cycle mirrors the dot-com era, why liquidity drives markets more than headlines, and why bearish arguments often miss the bigger picture. If you want a data-driven, historical perspective on what could be next for stocks, you won’t want to miss this. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He…

Is history repeating itself? The S&P 500 near 6,450 is tracking the late ’90s Dot-com rally almost to the week, and it could signal more upside ahead. Find out why August 1st may mark the low for 2H 2025, why fears about interest rates and foreign bond selling are likely overblown, and how falling volatility points to stronger markets into 2026. Get the context you need to understand where we are in this bull market and what it could mean for your portfolio. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and…

Fears of a major pullback may be overblown - Watch today's video to hear which past cycles I believe today’s market is echoing. I also go over what we're seeing in earnings, volatility, and institutional positioning, why we remain bullish heading into late 2025 and 2026, and what sectors may lead the next leg higher. If you're curious about how we're adjusting our long/short hedged equity strategy, what lower bond volatility really means for markets, and why Fed policy could spark a “performance chase” into year-end, don't miss today's update! About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an…

Today I'm walking you through the incredible 3.75-month V-bottom rally we’ve seen since mid-April, why it happened without Fed intervention, and what history suggests could be next. I’ll share why we believe the bull market remains intact, even as we head toward a likely late-summer pause or mild pullback before a potential 4th quarter rally and continued strength into 1H26. Along the way, I’ll highlight key market patterns, seasonal factors, and lessons from the Dot-com era, plus why now is a time for patience rather than FOMO. About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the…